The Dollar’s Terrible Fate
My readers are familiar with my forecast that the US dollar is in terminal decline. America is tragically bankrupt, unable to pay its lenders without printing the dollars to do so, and enmeshed in an economic depression. The clock is ticking until the dollar faces a crisis of confidence like every other bubble before it. The key difference between this collapse and, say, the bursting of the housing bubble is that the US dollar is the backbone of the global economy. Its conflagration will leave a vacuum that needs to be filled. Mainstream commentators often discuss three main contenders for the role: the euro, the yen, or China’s RMB (known colloquially as the “yuan”). These other currencies, however, each suffer from a critical flaw that makes them unready to carry the reserve currency role in time for the dollar’s collapse. When it comes to fiat alternatives, it appears the world would be going out of the frying pan and into the fire.
Euro: Fraying at the Edges
The euro is a ten-year-old experiment in uniting divergent political, economic, and cultural interests under one monolithic fiat currency held in the hands of one very powerful central bank. If managed correctly, such a currency could serve to keep its member-governments honest – but that is not the world in which we live. Instead, the fiscally irresponsible members are discussing ditching the currency at the first sign of trouble. That is, they’d rather have their own national currencies to inflate in order to cover over their burdensome public debts. So, in order to keep the euro together, creditor states have been strong-armed into bailouts of the debtors – even though such measures violate the compact that created the common currency.